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Vulnerabilità sismica: INGV studia il rischio dei centri dimenticati

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30 Nov Vulnerabilità sismica: INGV studia il rischio dei centri dimenticati

Un gruppo di ricercatori dell’INGV ha realizzato una graduatoria di priorità, utile per orientare campagne informative e interventi preventivi

Si chiama “La vulnerabilità dimenticata” ed è un interessantissimo studio, realizzato da un gruppo di ricercatori dell’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia e pubblicato sulla rivista International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, che di fatto propone una graduatoria di priorità degli interventi sui centri abitati dell’Appennino italiano più a rischio.

Cosa ci ‘dice’ lo studio
Ispirato dalla forte differenza nella risposta sismica di Amatrice e di Norcia a seguito del terremoto del 24 agosto 2016, lo studio specifica che meno del 10% della popolazione italiana è esposta a scuotimento sismico potenzialmente distruttivo. Piccolo particolare: è necessario sapere bene dove ‘investire’, per mettere in sicurezza le zone effettivamente più vulnerabili.

Il dirigente dell’INGV Gianluca Valensise, spiegando nel dettaglio l’identificazione dei 716 comuni selezionati, ha specificato che questi sono stati classificati dal potenzialmente più vulnerabile (cioè quelli per cui non si hanno informazioni di danni sismici e che, quindi, possono essere vulnerabili e impreparati) fino a quei comuni che in tempi recenti hanno subìto forti scosse e quindi più “preparati” rispetto a futuri forti terremoti. Per ogni comune, è stata verificata la data dell’ultimo terremoto distruttivo.

“L’analisi – ha aggiunto Valensise – ha riguardato la dorsale appenninica, circa 1000 km dalla Liguria alla Calabria, che da sola rilascia circa il 70% del momento sismico complessivo della nostra penisola. Il metodo può essere esteso a tutte le altre aree sismiche dell’Italia. Con la banca dati ISTAT sono stati, infine, selezionati i dati sulla popolazione e l’incidenza e tipologia degli edifici costruiti prima del 1918”.

Amatrice e Norcia
Il confronto è interessante perché gli accelerogrammi della scossa, registrati da due stazioni poste nei due centri abitati, mostrano che il livello dello scuotimento subìto è stato confrontabile, anche se appena più severo ad Amatrice. “Ma se ad Amatrice – continua il dirigente di ricerca INGV – per la scossa del 24 agosto (M 6.0) gli effetti sono stati dell’X-XI grado (scala Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg), coerentemente con la devastazione pressoché totale dell’abitato, a Norcia sono stati del VI grado”. Con la scossa del 30 ottobre (M 6.5), localizzata molto vicino a Norcia, gli effetti sono poi saliti al grado XI per Amatrice e al grado VIII-IX a Norcia (con oltre 220 vittime ad Amatrice e nessuna a Norcia).

Questa differenza sostanziale nella risposta sismica, quindi, da cosa è stata causata? Da un’elevata vulnerabilità del costruito ad Amatrice, a cui si contrappone una vulnerabilità molto bassa per gli edifici di Norcia, inclusi quelli storici. Ciò significa, quindi, che a ‘salvare’ le abitazioni di Norcia sarebbe stata la familiarità con le forti scosse, esperienza mancante per Amatrice: infatti, dopo il sisma del 1703, Norcia ha subito svariati terremoti distruttivi, compreso quello del 1979 che ha portato ad una ricostruzione ‘globale’, mentre Amatrice no, in quanto ‘vittima’ di eventi sismici minori.

Le conclusioni

1.    la vulnerabilità dei centri abitati storici aumenta al crescere del tempo trascorso dall’ultima ricostruzione sismica, come risultato accumulato sia dell’invecchiamento del patrimonio abitativo, sia della mancanza di interventi di miglioramento sismico, come una sorta di smemorizzazione;

2.    se una faglia sismogenetica è stata quiescente per secoli, la sua probabilità di causare un terremoto distruttivo aumenta grandemente rispetto a una faglia che ha dato un forte terremoto in epoche relativamente recenti.

FONTE: www.ingenio.it

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