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Quanto durerà il terremoto? Ce lo dice la crosta terrestre

Quanto_durerà_il_terremoto

14 Dic Quanto durerà il terremoto? Ce lo dice la crosta terrestre

Le sequenze sismiche in aree estensionali mediamente hanno una magnitudo più bassa, ma durano di più rispetto a quelle in ambienti compressivi. A dimostrarlo, uno studio condotto da Sapienza Università di Roma, Ingv e Cnr che spiega anche l’imponente e persistente corteo di repliche dell’Appennino, 80.000 in 15 mesi. Il lavoro è stato pubblicato su Scientific Reports

Quanto durerà il terremoto? È una delle domande a cui i ricercatori spesso si trovano a dover far fronte all’inizio di ogni sequenza sismica. Una nuova analisi di repliche (aftershock) dei terremoti ha permesso di dimostrare che gli ambienti estensionali hanno periodi più lunghi e numero di repliche maggiori rispetto agli ambienti compressivi. Lo studio, Longer aftershocks duration in extensional tectonic settings, condotto da un team di ricercatori dell’Istituto nazionale di geofisica e vulcanologia (Ingv), dell’Istituto per il rilevamento elettromagnetico dell’ambiente del Consiglio nazionale delle ricerche (Cnr-Irea), e Sapienza Università di Roma, è stato pubblicato su Scientific Reports, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14550-2.

“La ricerca”, spiega Carlo Doglioni, presidente dell’Ingv e professore della Sapienza Università di Roma, “dimostra che nelle zone dove la terra si dilata le sequenze sismiche, nonostante abbiano magnitudo mediamente più basse rispetto agli ambienti compressivi, durano più a lungo, poiché il volume crostale si muove a favore della forza di gravità. Le sequenze quindi terminano solamente quando il volume collassato trova un suo nuovo equilibrio gravitazionale”.

Viceversa, negli ambienti compressivi, il volume si deve muovere contro la forza di gravità e quindi l’energia in grado di continuare a sollevare il tetto delle faglie si esaurisce più rapidamente.

“Da un’analisi comparativa di dieci sequenze sismiche”, afferma Pietro Tizzani, ricercatore Cnr-Irea, “di cui cinque inserite in un contesto tettonico estensionale e cinque in uno compressivo, è stato possibile dimostrare che, a prescindere dalla magnitudo dell’evento sismico considerato, i terremoti estensionali durano di più rispetto a quelli che si sviluppano in un ambiente compressivo”.

Lo studio spiega perché i terremoti dell’Appennino, che sono in buona parte di tipo estensionale, sono seguiti da un corteo di repliche così imponente e persistente nel tempo. Ad esempio, sono passati 15 mesi dall’inizio della sequenza sismica di Amatrice-Norcia e vi sono state circa 80.000 repliche. Questa chiave di lettura della sismicità può avere significative applicazioni nella gestione dell’emergenza post-evento, poiché in funzione del tipo di ambiente tettonico si può avere già una stima approssimativa della durata degli aftershock. Inoltre, conferma che l’energia accumulata nei secoli che precedono la rottura cosismica è diversa a seconda dell’ambiente tettonico, cioè principalmente gravitazionale per quelli estensionali ed elastica per quelli compressivi.

“La comprensione dei diversi meccanismi e relative fenomenologie associate ai vari ambienti geodinamici”, conclude Doglioni, “può portare a una più approfondita e utile classificazione dei terremoti, passo indispensabile per arrivare a comprenderne natura ed evoluzione temporale”.

In figura:  (a): Modello geologico del possibile ciclo sismico (ossia periodi inter-sismici e cosismici), associato a una faglia normale (sequenza estensionale). (b) Modello geologico del ciclo sismico (ossia periodi inter-sismici e cosismici), associato a una faglia inversa (sequenza compressiva). In entrambi i modelli è stata assunta una velocità di deformazione costante nella crosta inferiore all’interfaccia duttile/fragile. Le sequenze tettoniche estensionali sono caratterizzate da una durata più lunga delle repliche, in quanto il sistema si muove a favore della gravità e, in questo caso, il volume di crosta interessato dalla fratturazione cosismica collassa fino a raggiungere un nuovo equilibrio gravitazionale.

FONTE: www.ingv.it

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